Oscar predictions: we weigh in

Well, it wouldn’t be the Oscars if it didn’t give us the opportunity to make fools of ourselves by acting as though we’re wise to Academy buzz. So check out the following post in which we make our predictions – then tune in again on Monday to see us all eating our words and giving specious explanations as to why we were so incredibly misguided.

It hasn’t been a good week for The Hurt Locker. Before it was hit with a lawsuit by an ex-soldier, earlier this week co-producer Nicolas Chartier got into all kinds of trouble for an email gaffe that saw him urging his friends on the Academy committee to support THL and not “that $500M movie” (which, as quick-witted industry pundits have pointed out, is a reference to Avatar). The rule of nominee publicity is that while you can talk up your own flick, it’s prohibited to criticise the competition, as it is to send out rallying emails. But Chartier was punished to a ludicrous degree (apart from his time in the metaphorical stocks, his invitation to the Oscars has been rescinded – I wonder if they send out a second engraved card saying: You are no longer invited …) for saying something that must be obvious to all – that a movie that cost $500M does not need the profile-enhancing effect of Academy Award wins. Is it an insult to allude to the film’s budget? Nowadays, would it be considered tasteless of David to point out the huge discrepancy in size between himself and Goliath?

This feeds in to the big question of these Academy Awards, to which we’ll get an answer on Sunday evening. And that is: what is it exactly that the Academy will be rewarding? Are they films that display technical brilliance? Films that the public loves? Films that were critically acclaimed? Films that change the way the industry regards genre, or female leads, or subject matter?

Last year’s awards ceremony was held against the backdrop of the worst of the recession and the WGA strike and a lot of the big winners were united under a banner of worthiness (Slumdog Millionaire, Milk, The Reader). The circumstances of this year’s awards ceremony are more auspicious and it’s likely we’ll see a more celebratory tone at the event. In terms of prize-giving, I reckon this means rewarding those who reflect the face of Hollywood back in the most flattering light. That means awards for people who’ve paid their dues (Bullock, Bridges), and for home-grown hit-makers. As for the big debate (The Hurt Locker versus Avatar) I’ve been wondering if there isn’t a third option, in the form of one fast-talking, Nazi-hating, baseball-bat wielding flick. I’ve marked it for best original screenplay – but who knows? It could snag Best Picture.

Emma’s predictions

Best picture: The Hurt Locker

Best director: Kathryn Bigelow

Best actor: Jeff Bridges

Best actress: Sandra Bullock

Best foreign language film: A Prophet

Best supporting actor: Christoph Waltz

Best supporting actress: Mo’Nique

Best animated film: Up

Best original screenplay: Inglourious Basterds

Best adapted screenplay: Up In The Air

Kimberly's predictions

Best Picture: Avatar

Best Direction: Kathryn Bigelow

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges

Best Actress: Carey Mulligan

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique

Best Original Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Best Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman/Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

Paul’s predictions

Best Picture: Avatar

Best Director: James Cameron

This is by no means a foregone conclusion, and you would have to say that Bigelow and The Hurt Locker are still in with a very strong shot at glory. However it feels as if the cash haul of Avatar and, more importantly, what the film represents for the future of the movie industry (or at least what what the movie industry thinks it represents for the future of the movie industry) will carry sufficient weight to secure it the big trophies on the night. The Hurt Locker is a far superior film, but for the Academy to reward Bigelow's movie and snub Cameron's money-swallowing behemoth would surely be seen as a plea for more lower-budget, script/performance-driven product - and fewer eye-scorching 3D blockbusters. And that is not a business model Hollywood is keen to pursue at present.

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)

Bridges is the sole nominee in this category who the Academy will feel is due recognition. Clooney and Freeman already have Oscars, while Renner and Firth should be grateful that their mere existence has been acknowledged, so the Dude seems sure to triumph by virtue of being the only one who could be said to be owed something by the voters.

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)

I think the Academy will want to offer some acknowledgement towards the box-office success of The Blind Side, and – similar to Bridges in the Best Actor field - Bullock would seem to have the “It's my time” edge over her fellow nominees. Streep and Mirren both have Oscars of their own, while Mulligan and Sidibe are both young, breakthrough performers, who the Academy will most likely want to see more of before handing them major awards.

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique (Precious)

For either of these two not to emerge victorious now is about as likely as Sylvester Stallone being cast as the teen Peter Parker in the high school-set reboot of Spider-Man.

Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker)

Assuming Avatar takes home the major awards then a token Oscar for Boal's Hurt Locker script would serve as at least some sort of consolation prize for that movie. And if The Hurt Locker does turn out to be the evening's major victor then a bauble for Boal will surely cement its overall victory. Either way, Boal wins.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner (Up In the Air)

He may look like a scruffy git, but Reitman was a very polite young nominee when he was last on the Oscar merry-go-round with Juno, playing the “I'm just happy to be here” card to sick-making perfection. And now is the hour he will receive his reward for his good, good manners, as well as the trite reductiveness of his Up In the Air. Watch out for the speech from Reitman and Turner though. As we described last month, 'when Up In The Air won best motion picture screenplay at the Golden Globes on Sunday, Reitman took to the stage and made the speech, without thanking or acknowledging co-credited Sheldon Turner, who trailed sadly and silently behind him', and this category could well yield the most awkward Oscar victory moment since Harvey Weinstein pissed on Ed Zwick's Shakespeare in Love chips back in 1999.

Best Animated Film: Up

It is a very strong line-up in this category but, with the equivalent Golden Globe and Bafta already secured, Up will rise to the podium as a winner.

Best Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon

This looks like a straight dust-up between the two heavyweight nominees, Jacques Audiard's A Prophet and Michael Haneke's The White Ribbon, which have spent the last eight months or so carving up major film awards between them in an oligopoly that would be the envy of any corporate price-fixing weasel. Audiard's prison drama picked up the Grand Prix at Cannes, top honours at the London Film Festival, and the Foreign Language Bafta (as did the director's previous film The Beat That My Heart Skipped). Meanwhile muddy funster Haneke has seen his movie secure the Palme d'Or and the Golden Globe for Best Foreign Language Film. It will be a tight one, but the Academy might just plump for The White Ribbon, in acknowledgement of Haneke's pre-eminent status in world cinema over the last fifteen years or so.

Angela's predictions

Best picture
There’s a number of worthy contenders in the Best Picture category, and as much as I’d like to see the heart-wrenching Up win I have a strong feeling the statue will fall into the smug hands of James Cameron for the 3D blue people film, Avatar. Sigh.

Actor in a leading role
I like Colin Firth, and Jeremy Renner’s performance in The Hurt Locker is probably worthy of a win but my guess would have to lie with Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart; his character does defeat alcoholism after all...

Actor in a supporting role
My money’s on Stanley Tucci. The audience at a test screening of The Lovely Bones hated his character so much that they requested that his death be more violent. That much hate means his performance hit its mark.

Actress in a leading role
Gabourey Sidibe: it's an Oscar-worthy message delivered by two brilliant actresses. Gabourey is in with a shot.

Actress in a supporting role
It would be nice to see Anna Kendrick taking a golden statue; she’s now proved herself outside of the Twilight bubble and Clooney for one can't stop yapping about her talent but my guess is still Mo’Nique.

Animated feature film
I found it difficult to choose between Coraline, The Princess and the Frog and Up in terms of merit. I haven’t seen The Secret of Kells but from what I know about it it’s a worthy contender. As long as Fantastic Mr Fox doesn’t win, I’m happy.

Writing (adapted)
As much as I enjoyed District 9 and found the use of real, xenophobic vox pops at the start thought-provoking and clever, judging by buzz I think this award might instead go to Up in the Air.

Writing (original)
While Up is my personal favourite from the nominations, I think Quentin Tarantino may grab the award for Inglourious Basterds.